Inaccurate Estimates of BP (NYSE:BP) Gulf Oil Flow Affected Plugging

The release of a report from a federal commission investigating the BP (NYSE:BP) oil spill found the Obama administration made a number of mistakes throughout the ordeal.

One was the estimates proffered by the government which were far less than later estimates. Original oil flow estimates out of the damaged well were from 1,000 to 5,000 barrels a day, while later estimates were up to 62,000 barrels a day.

On that the report concluded, “By initially underestimating the amount of oil flow and then, at the end of the summer, appearing to underestimate the amount of oil remaining in the Gulf, the federal government created the impression that it was either not fully competent to handle the spill or not fully candid with the American people about the scope of the problem. It is possible that inaccurate flow-rate figures may have hindered the subsea efforts to stop and to contain the flow of oil at the wellhead.”

While the report is accurate on its assessment of the oil flowing into the Gulf, it's not clear at all that government estimates of the remaining oil in the Gulf is inaccurate, as followup studies have confirmed much of what they originally said.

There's always going to be the so-called scientists who are going to dispute the amount of oil left in the Gulf because of private agendas and hopes of securing research money.

As far as the effect of the amount of oil being released into the Gulf being understated, the report said it could have disrupted the efforts of BP to stop the flow.

Louisiana Holding BP (NYSE:BP) to Promises

While there's not really any reason at this time to think it, some people are getting nervous now that BP (NYSE:BP) has permanently plugged the oil well, thinking they may cut and run in spite of past promises.

Louisiana, which seems to be the most fearful and paranoid throughout the ordeal, of the Gulf states, let it be known there is still a lot of work to be done in the area.

BP has said from the beginning that they're going to clean up the area, and it isn't clear what prompted Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Secretary Bob Barham and Governor Bobby Jindal to imply BP wasn't going to do it.

Barham said, "Just because the well is plugged does not mean this event, the final chapter, has been closed."

Jindal has said until the coast of Louisiana is restored to pre-spill conditions, BP will have a job to do and pay for.

BP (NYSE:BP) Well Finally Put to Rest

If stopping the oil from leaking with a cap could be called the wake, then the permanent sealing of the BP (NYSE:BP) oil well could be called its funeral; at least in reference to it being in danger of leaking again.

The final batch of cement for the "bottom kill" set on Saturday, which prepared the way for a pressure and weight test, which confirmed the well was permanently sealed.

The cap was placed on the well in July and more cement injected into the top of the well as an extra safety measure in August.

Cement was injected into the well through a relief well in this final step.

Questions on whether or not the block the well is located in will be drilled again by BP, and whether or not the may sell the plugged well to another operator to extract the approximate 46 million barrels of oil remaining, as well as the gas.

BP has said they won't be using the well again, although they left the option open they may drill into the block again.

BP (NYSE:BP) Bottom Kill Should be Completed in Four Days

Approaching the targeted intersection point on the Macondo well, which should be reached today, BP (NYSE:BP) is only several days from implementing the final procedure called a "bottom kill," which will permanently seal the oil well.

According to National Incident Commander Thad Allen, the government point man, including when the intersection is made and tests are conducted, it should be about 4 days until the job is completed.

After the testing is finished, an injection of cement and mud will be sent to the bottom of the well to block the oil and gas lying beneath it.

While this is largely a foregone conclusion, it will be good for BP and the government to finally close this chapter of the drama in order to focus on the repercussions of the oil spill, which they of course have already began to do.

BP (NYSE:BP) Permanent "Bottom Kill" Procedure Resumes

Quickly reversing directions on holding off on the bottom kill procedure in order to inject more mud and cement into the top of the oil well, government point man Thad Allen said they'll bypass that procedure, as it could have extended operations into October.

Concerns over the pressure spikes was behind the original decision, but they will instead install a locking sleeve on top of the well, which will provide similar protection.

Consequently BP (NYSE:BP) has resumed the drilling of the relief well which will intersect the main well in order to permanently seal Macondo.

As of Friday the relief well was 50 feet from the place of intersection of the Macondo well, and Allen said it would probably take several days to reach the destination, and another several days to fill it with cement and mud.

So by next weekend, or a little after, the job should be completed.

Thad Allen Tells BP (NYSE:BP) to Check Seals on Oil Well

On a conference call today, National Incident Commander Thad Allen said he has ordered BP (NYSE:BP) to check the seals on the Macondo oil well in the Gulf.

Allen said what he is looking for is whether or not the seals will be able to handle 1 million pounds of pressure.

If they can, it could speed up the process of permanently sealing the well, according to Allen.

He added if it is able to handle the pressure, they may not need to perform the recently-added task of pumping more cement into the top of the well, and may proceed with original plans to do just the "bottom kill."

BP (NYSE:BP) Well May Have to Wait Till October for Permanent Kill

In a conference call with reporters today, National Incident Commander Thad Allen said the government and BP (NYSE:BP) may have to extend the time to permanently kill the oil well until October.

The delay, if it happens, is the result of taking into consideration new steps to plug the Macondo well.

What is being thrown around is the idea of injecting more cement into the top of the well as part of the final process. The "bottom kill" already entails injecting mud and cement into the lower portion of the well to ensure a permanent plug.

Allen said, “We are in a little bit of a diagnostic phase right now to try to figure out what is the current status of the well.”

If the two-step process is implemented, it could start by September 18, or as late as September 28. The overall process will take about a week, which could bring it into October.

BP (NYSE:BP) Successfully Switches Blowout Preventer on Well

The failed blowout preventer on top of the BP (NYSE:BP) oil well has been been successfully removed and replaced by a new blowout preventer in preparation for the final steps of performing a "bottom kill," which will permanently seal the oil well.

BP removed the damaged blowout preventer on Friday and is bringing it slowly to the surface on its mile-long journey.

Government point man Thad Allen said there was no known release of oil into the Gulf during the exchange.

"During the period of time between the removal of the damaged BOP and installation of the replacement BOP, there was no observable release of hydrocarbons from the wellhead," Allen said.

The blowout preventer, which weighs in at 300 tons, is being slowly brought to the surface so no damage is caused to the device, as it's a key piece of evidence in the ongoing investigation into the causes of the accident.

Government officials will take possession of the blowout preventer once it reaches the surface, and will eventually examine it to find out why it failed to do its job.

BP (NYSE:BP) Has Begun Removing Drill Pipe

BP (NYSE:BP) has begun the process of removing the 3,500 feet of drilling pipe from the Gulf of Mexico. This could not start until the completion of an ambient pressure test. The test assured that no oil or gas would escape if the blowout preventer and sealing cap are removed from the top of the well.

Thad Allen, retired U.S. Coast Guard Admiral, told BP that they had to put together a plan to get out the blowout preventer. They had until Sunday to turn over the plans to the U.S. government. The question remains, how they will successfully remove the pipe while managing to keep the cap and blowout preventer in place and preventing damage.

U.S. officials said that it is necessary to replace the blowout preventer prior to the final "bottom kill" attempt because there are concerns that the sealing cap could come loose. If the cement and mud mixture is forced into the bottom of the well prematurely, it ultimately could blow the cap off all together and the trapped oil would leak into the Gulf.

Oil Futures Trading Plummets: BP (NYSE:BP)

After watching the oil futures trading market rise over the last few weeks, it has once again plummeted as BP (NYSE:BP) is still uncertain on their final bottom kill attempt. This once again leads to much uncertainty for oil futures.


Oil futures traded at their lowest in a month. The primary concern is that the recovery isn't durable enough to bring down the excessive fuel inventories in the U.S. Yesterday in New York, oil futures dropped 35 cents or 0.5 percent to $75.42, this is the lowest since August 16th.

Crude oil for September delivery declined 29 cents or 0.9 percent to $75.13 a barrel.


The crude oil stockpiles lost 818,000 barrels to 354.2 million barrels, according to the Energy Department. A Bloomsberg News Survey showed it was expected to lose almost 1 million barrels.


Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley said, that the economic growth in China as well as other emerging markets will push crude up to over $100 a barrel by next year.

BP (NYSE:BP) Oil Orders A New Blowout Preventer

BP (NYSE:BP) oil is bringing in a new blowout preventer for the well. The company is waiting to hear from U.S. officials for instructions on how to proceed. Thad Allen, National Incident Commander is the one who ordered the new piece.

U.S. officials put a halt to the bottom kill procedure. The primary concern is that the 1,000 barrels of oil currently trapped in the well could leak. The well was finally sealed July 15th, but not before spewing 4.9 million barrels of crude oil into the Gulf region.

Meanwhile, tests and talks continue between the Obama administration and BP. They have not yet decided how to move forward with the completion of the final 50 feet of the relief well. Allen said that the new blowout preventer will be replacing existing equipment. Although it's unclear whether it will be before or after the bottom kill.

Did BP (NYSE:BP) Kill Well with 'Top Kill' on Purpose?

Some may wonder why it matters if BP (NYSE:BP) attempted to permanently kill the oil well on purpose with the 'top kill.' Technically it doesn't matter, as the goal is to permanently plug the well, not the methodology used.

But it does matter from the point of view of the purpose in doing it, as it could reveal there were intentions from the beginning by the Obama administration and BP to have an out if they want to extract oil from the well at a future date, or sell the oil assets to another company.

If the well were to be plugged with the top kill, and there was no need to use the relief well to do a bottom kill, there would be a perfect situation for BP or a company coming in to use the relief well for extracting oil and gas still in the well.

For about a week BP and the government have given indications permanently plugging the well may not be the way to go.

Pressure tests will be enacted to determine if the cement leaked into the annulus, which is the goal of the bottom kill, and the definition of permanently plugging it.

If that indeed did happen, or is even being tested as to possibly happened, it surely was planned that way for the purposes mentioned above.

Why would they do that? To lower public resistance to the well being accessed again for oil and gas; whether by BP or another corporation.

If cement "accidentally" seeped into the well and performed the bottom kill results, then there is a convenient relief well in place to extract the oil and gas.

While this is not a surety as to whether it'll work or not, I do think it was attempted on purpose in an effort to give it a realistic chance of working.

There can be no doubt the Obama administration and BP are attempting to salvage the oil and gas under the Gulf floor. They're just attempting to do it in a way that's palatable to the public.

BP (NYSE:BP): "To Kill" or Not "To Kill"

With BP (NYSE:BP) being so close to reaching the relief well, they now have to stop drilling due to approaching storms. Thad Allen, retired Coast Guard Adm. said they are expecting a delay of two or three days in completing the relief well.

There has been no oil spilled since the placement of the temporary cap was placed on top of the well in mid July. The crews will put into place a temporary plug to protect what they've already drilled. They are only lacking another 30 feet until they'll be done. Workers won't be going back to land.

Allen has been insisting for days that BP go ahead and start the bottom kill. On Tuesday he changed his tune, and stated that more testing needed to be completed before a decision could be made.

Allen said, "I'm not sure we know that. I don't want to prejudge whether we are going to do it or not going to do it. It will be conditioned based." He did state that there's a "very low probability"
of the bottom kill not being done. "We will let everyone know" if it changes.

BP (NYSE:BP) Cement Hardens, on to "Bottom Kill"

BP (NYSE:BP) said that the sealing cement has hardened. Work crews are now preparing for the final stage of drilling a relief well, called "bottom kill." After oil was spewing into the ocean for 84 days.

The pressure tests that were done on the cement plug that was forced down the throat of the well, have shown the seal is securely in place. Which means, BP can start drilling on the last 100 feet to permanently seal the damaged well. The crews must drill very carefully and very slowly, only progressing at a rate of about 30 feet at a time.

The company is expecting to not be completed until next weekend. They will use the same process of drilling cement and mud, this time into the bottom of the well. At that time, they are confident the two relief wells will meet, thus completing the process and "killing" the well.

BP (NYSE:BP) Won't Plug Well Until Next Week

Thad Allen, National Incident Commander told reporters on Sunday that BP (NYSE:BP) will most likely begin working on plugging the well next week. The ships used to help plug the well were evacuated Friday due to tropical storm Bonnie, but most have returned or are expected to return within 24 hours.

Allen said that he plans on BP beginning the process known as "static kill" next week. This entails pouring mud into the top of the well. Once completed, they will then proceed with what's called the "bottom kill." The process includes pouring mud and concrete by a connecting line to the relief well.

Allen was very optimistic over the success of containing the leaking oil on July 15th. He said the pressure continues to rise at a slow steady pace, reaching 6,904 pounds per square inch. The well remains intact with no leaks.