Timing of Iran's Oil Exports Not as Important as Some Think

Summary

Projected increase in demand versus ongoing supply.

Beware of temptation to time the oil market.

Some considerations on what to look for.

Dollar cost averaging versus lump sum investing.


Now that the price of oil has plummeted to under $31 per barrel as I write, it's worth taking a look at whether or not it's getting close to consider seriously investing in the commodity, or continue to wait on the sidelines; including whether to initiate a position or add to a position.

Most of the decision should be based on whether or not investors believe it's at least close to a bottom, or at minimum, a price range that reflects being near to a low.

Since I'm not a believer in timing the market, looking at a price range is the best way to analyze where the price of oil is at. The challenge is we're in uncharted territory. Not because we haven't seen significant price fluctuations in oil before, but because we have never seen it after the emergence of shale oil as a significant supplier.

more on Iran's oil exports