It's sometimes hard to look at all the nonsense being perpetuated by people with agendas, as it seems there's almost nothing important any more that isn't politicized in some way, and so ultimately lied about. Gold is one of those things, and another major one, which I want to talk about is peak oil.
So by definition, what is peak oil? It simply means that oil that was relatively easy to reach and extract has been depleted. The question then becomes if that is in reality the case. The answer is absolutely no. The peak oil myth is just that - a myth. That doesn't mean there won't come a day when that becomes the reality, it's just that it isn't the case now, and won't be any time soon.
So why is the myth continually perpetuated? Because it takes the eyes and minds of people off of why oil prices sometimes surge and the caused behind it. The major reason there's the beginnings of an artifially induced oil peak is because of consequences of political actions put into law which forbids access and drilling on easy-to-drill and extract oil. Think of Alaska and off the coastlines of the U.S. There are billions of barrels of oil available, yet not allowed to be drilled for because of pressure from radical environmentalists and lawmakers looking to curry favor from the media which loves this type of idiocy.
This is mostly brought about from the endless introduction of fear as the key tool used by these liars in order to manipulate public policy to their hidden agendas.
These manipulators even try to ask the types of irrelevant questions that herd people a certain way so, again, they don't look at the facts, realities and agendas behind them. For example, they use terms like what is going to happen "after oil." Or other statements like "surviving peak oil," or "life after peak oil. The implication is that peak oil is reality that we must now deal with, rather than the fact that there's absolutely no basis for concern at this time if the current regulations were removed. That's what is trying to be hidden from the minds of people.
Besides the obvious billions of barrels of oil in Alaska and off American coastlines, where else is there oil available? In the United States itself there is enough oil in shale to make it the largest oil reserves in the world; far beyond what Saudi Arabia has. That is a proven fact. There are of course also have billions of barrels of oil in the Canadian sands area, which will also last for decades. These are just a couple of areas which don't include many other areas in the world.
So why imply an oil shortage, what is the hidden agenda behind it. Some of it is philosophical, as ignorant people literally think of the earth as their mother, and to drill into their mother is actually hideous in their warped minds. Another reason for asserting oil depletion is in order to promote agendas related to radical environmentalists and their business allies, who want to try to cash in on the misguided focus on what is called "alternative energy," where billions of dollars are being wasted because of the fear mongering people who make it look like the world is falling in order to gain access to public and private money to further their purposes. It's nothing more than that.
There's no oil crisis, we're not close to losing easy access to oil supplies.
While I do agree that oil prices will eventually have to go up, especially until ways of figuring out how to extract oil from shale is made cheaper, there is still so much oil available that to say we're in any type of crisis is dishonest at best, and ignorant at worst.
Even new ways of scouring the ocean floors and seeing what lies beneath the salty residue has resulted in billions of barrels of oil being discovered by Brazil, and their just getting going on that, as Petrobras continues to look for more deposits. Granted, it's far below the ocean floor and will be more costly - at this time - to extract, is does show how much oil there is that hasn't been discovered yet, and how much would be avaiable when restrictions on drilling for oil on coastlines are lifted.
The world oil supply is fine, and world oil reserves in a solid place. Oil consumption for now has cut back, as economic weakness causes consumers to drive less and stay around home more. That will extend signficantly the amount of oil available and its use.
So you don't have to worry or be fearful over the dishonest assertions by those with private agendas. There's billions and billions of barrels of oil available, it's just not being allowed to be drilled for because of existing laws which eventually will be withdrawn when real pressures from the population make it politically dangerous to keep people from cheaper oil and gas prices.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Oil Investment | 2009 and Beyond
The oil and gas industry continues to struggle as overall demand continues to decline. That has of course, as far as oil demand goes, created the current contango or super contango situation which has resulted in a great chance to make safe money through oil investment.
Even though oil and gas companies will have some short term difficulty and challenges, as the economic circumstances continue to gradually improve, people will start driving, flying and traveling again, and we'll see oil demand and oil prices start to increase again.
Oil news has been somewhat grim, but again, crude oil isn't going to drop in need or use anytime soon, and even though mainstream media outlets love to make big oil companies look like villains, they will continue to be profitable far into the future because of the demand for it will not stop any time soon.
Many people that in reality oppose the use of oil for a variety of stupid reasons, like to try to make the argument that we've reached the point where oil has peaked, or peak oil, so that we much waste billions of dollars in order to save humanity as fuel resources dry up. This is nothing else but a lie, and the use of fear as a tool to take taxpayers dollars and waste them on things like ethanol, which has turned into a disastrous debacle and the source of an endless number of engine breakdowns, especially among small engines. Creating an atmosphere of torment and fear has ended with idiotic waste of time and money, when in reality there are billions of barrels of oil on U.S. land and off it's shorelines. Only the hateful environmentalists and their private agendas generate the type of publicity that makes this typeo of scenario possible, as the thought of drilling into their mother earth is atrocious to these earth worshippers, as they are offended by humans existing, but god help you if you drill into their "mother."
That's my little rant. Now the reality. Just in the rock shale of the United States alone, it is estimated there is far more available proven oil reserves than exists in Saudi Arabia. This is trying to be covered up so Americans don't call the government and radical environmentalists to account for their crimes against humanity by not only lying, but covering up the fact that there is that much oil available for use. This doesn't even take into account the oil off our shorelines or in Alaska. Go beyond that and we have the new methods that can see hidden oil underneath the salt of the oceans, and where Brazil's Petrobras has uncovered billions more in oil fields beneath the ocean floor, and they're just getting started. Add the huge amount in the Canadian oil sands and you get the idea. The idea of peak oil is a joke at this time, and will be for many decades into the future. Those opposing oil and gas companies have been hiding the fact of how much oil is available so they can create a panic in order to get access for their pet projects in relationship to alternative energy. A growing number of those in the energy business are doing the same as tax credits and other incentives "blind" their eyes to the huge source of existing energy we still have.
So the oil and gas industry along with the oil and gas companies are in reality in a strong position in the long term, as oil and gas will flow through the pipelines for decades and decades into the future, which will not only provide many oil and gas jobs, but keep things running while we lose the emotional baggage and slowly look at realistic and legitimate sources of alternative energy going forward. There's absolutely no lack of oil and gas we can drill for and produce at this time, and there is no need to create the false sense of urgency the media has been doing through its going to bed with environmentalists.
Oil exploration needs to continually be encouraged, as well as removing barriers to oil well drilling. Oil development will continue to be a huge business in the world, and the resources out there are still staggering, as far as the amount of oil and gas still out there to be extracted from the earth and underneath the oceans.
Where does all of this leave oil and gas as an investment? It will be a very strong and profitable place to put our money, both over the short and long term.
Once the global recession starts to wind down, demand for oil will increase and go beyond normal levels, and we'll see a huge increase in use and prices. Those investing in the oil industry and oil companies will profit tremendously, as it's discovered that oil resources aren't diminishing at all, but are available in huge quantities. As oil engineers solve some of the cost problems related to extracting oil of shale, along with doing it more efficiently, we'll see this story unfold in the years ahead, as the media, politicians and radical environmentals won't be able to hide it.
Short term we already have the existing contango or super contango condition that allows a safe and guaranteed source of profit via taking arbitrage positions, and as that winds down, we should see oil prices start to gradually rise again. It's only a matter of when the economy turns around; that's what we need to be looking at and measuring our decisions of when to invest in oil by.
So whether it's oil drilling companies, natural gas companies, or oil and gas companies within the oil and gas industry, the future is bright for all aspects of the energy sector. Those investing in oil or gas in the short and long term will find themselves very happy with the profits they take away from it.
Even though oil and gas companies will have some short term difficulty and challenges, as the economic circumstances continue to gradually improve, people will start driving, flying and traveling again, and we'll see oil demand and oil prices start to increase again.
Oil news has been somewhat grim, but again, crude oil isn't going to drop in need or use anytime soon, and even though mainstream media outlets love to make big oil companies look like villains, they will continue to be profitable far into the future because of the demand for it will not stop any time soon.
Many people that in reality oppose the use of oil for a variety of stupid reasons, like to try to make the argument that we've reached the point where oil has peaked, or peak oil, so that we much waste billions of dollars in order to save humanity as fuel resources dry up. This is nothing else but a lie, and the use of fear as a tool to take taxpayers dollars and waste them on things like ethanol, which has turned into a disastrous debacle and the source of an endless number of engine breakdowns, especially among small engines. Creating an atmosphere of torment and fear has ended with idiotic waste of time and money, when in reality there are billions of barrels of oil on U.S. land and off it's shorelines. Only the hateful environmentalists and their private agendas generate the type of publicity that makes this typeo of scenario possible, as the thought of drilling into their mother earth is atrocious to these earth worshippers, as they are offended by humans existing, but god help you if you drill into their "mother."
That's my little rant. Now the reality. Just in the rock shale of the United States alone, it is estimated there is far more available proven oil reserves than exists in Saudi Arabia. This is trying to be covered up so Americans don't call the government and radical environmentalists to account for their crimes against humanity by not only lying, but covering up the fact that there is that much oil available for use. This doesn't even take into account the oil off our shorelines or in Alaska. Go beyond that and we have the new methods that can see hidden oil underneath the salt of the oceans, and where Brazil's Petrobras has uncovered billions more in oil fields beneath the ocean floor, and they're just getting started. Add the huge amount in the Canadian oil sands and you get the idea. The idea of peak oil is a joke at this time, and will be for many decades into the future. Those opposing oil and gas companies have been hiding the fact of how much oil is available so they can create a panic in order to get access for their pet projects in relationship to alternative energy. A growing number of those in the energy business are doing the same as tax credits and other incentives "blind" their eyes to the huge source of existing energy we still have.
So the oil and gas industry along with the oil and gas companies are in reality in a strong position in the long term, as oil and gas will flow through the pipelines for decades and decades into the future, which will not only provide many oil and gas jobs, but keep things running while we lose the emotional baggage and slowly look at realistic and legitimate sources of alternative energy going forward. There's absolutely no lack of oil and gas we can drill for and produce at this time, and there is no need to create the false sense of urgency the media has been doing through its going to bed with environmentalists.
Oil exploration needs to continually be encouraged, as well as removing barriers to oil well drilling. Oil development will continue to be a huge business in the world, and the resources out there are still staggering, as far as the amount of oil and gas still out there to be extracted from the earth and underneath the oceans.
Where does all of this leave oil and gas as an investment? It will be a very strong and profitable place to put our money, both over the short and long term.
Once the global recession starts to wind down, demand for oil will increase and go beyond normal levels, and we'll see a huge increase in use and prices. Those investing in the oil industry and oil companies will profit tremendously, as it's discovered that oil resources aren't diminishing at all, but are available in huge quantities. As oil engineers solve some of the cost problems related to extracting oil of shale, along with doing it more efficiently, we'll see this story unfold in the years ahead, as the media, politicians and radical environmentals won't be able to hide it.
Short term we already have the existing contango or super contango condition that allows a safe and guaranteed source of profit via taking arbitrage positions, and as that winds down, we should see oil prices start to gradually rise again. It's only a matter of when the economy turns around; that's what we need to be looking at and measuring our decisions of when to invest in oil by.
So whether it's oil drilling companies, natural gas companies, or oil and gas companies within the oil and gas industry, the future is bright for all aspects of the energy sector. Those investing in oil or gas in the short and long term will find themselves very happy with the profits they take away from it.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Oil | Contango Continues Supertanker Storage
The super contango arbitrage remains in play for investors as oil continues to be stored on supertankers in anticipation of prices rising.
Oil companies are still building up vast floating reserves of unsold crude oil on supertankers at sea because oil for immediate delivery is much cheaper than futures prices, traders and shipping brokers said on Friday.
The stockpile, mostly on Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) in the North Sea, U.S. Gulf, in the Mediterranean and off the coast of West Africa, is now so large that it probably exceeds 80 million barrels -- about equivalent to a day's global oil consumption, brokers say.
Despite the recent sale of a handful of cargoes of North Sea crude from a supertanker at Scapa Flow in Scotland's Orkney Islands last week, the economics still make a compelling argument for buying oil now, putting it in a ship and selling it in a few months' time, traders say.
Much of the oil is North Sea crude such as Forties and Brent, but it also includes Russian Urals crude, West African and other grades.
Margins can be locked in at the time of purchase through a series of time spreads or contracts for differences as well as trades on London's ICE futures market.
"The amount of oil stored at sea is increasing steadily and will keep increasing until the numbers no longer make sense," said Simon Wardell, oil analyst at Global Insight in London.
Deepening global recession has dragged oil prices down more than 70 percent since they hit a record high of almost $150 a barrel last July, but oil futures prices are much higher, more than paying for storage and other costs such as financing.
CONTANGO
This discount for North Sea oil now below oil for the future, known as a contango, has been as wide as $8 over the last two months and much of the oil now stored at sea was put afloat in December.
Last week, the trading arm of Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) sold three cargoes of North Sea Forties crude by transshipment, prompting talk that the storage trade might be coming to an end.
The contango had flattened out, allowing Shell and some other companies that had stored oil to cash in and make a profit.
But the discount for prompt oil has deepened again over the last week, partly perhaps because of the release of some of oil from storage, and traders have again started booking vessels on long-term contracts with storage options, shipping brokers say.
BP Plc (BP.L), U.S. oil company Koch and independent Swiss-based trader Gunvor have all been in the market for, or taken options on, VLCCs with flexible, long-term storage options in the last few days, brokers say.
"There is no doubt that the contango play works again," said one oil broker, who declined to be identified. "The margin is there and is being filled."
By early Friday, there was a spread between light, sweet physical North Sea crude for delivery next week and June Brent futures LCOc1 of around $6.75, and closer to $8 against July futures.
Assuming rental rates for a 2.4 million-barrel VLCC of around $60,000 per day, that would put the cost of oil storage at around 75 cents per barrel per month, well inside the time spread even with hefty financing costs.
Many traders now storing oil believe the market for prompt oil will begin to strengthen over the next month or so as promised cuts in production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries begin to tighten supply.
The onset of the northern hemisphere summer could also spur an increase in demand for gasoline in the United States.
But analysts suggest the sheer size of the floating stockpile represents a threat to any quick recovery in oil prices. The oil will be released on to the market as prices recover, helping to slow or at least dampen any recovery.
"At some point all this oil will come flooding back into the market once the prompt price comes up against the futures," said Wardell. "That is likely to depress prices again."
The super contango arbitrage play is one of the few sureties for investors, and well worth investing in to assure profits.
Oil companies are still building up vast floating reserves of unsold crude oil on supertankers at sea because oil for immediate delivery is much cheaper than futures prices, traders and shipping brokers said on Friday.
The stockpile, mostly on Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) in the North Sea, U.S. Gulf, in the Mediterranean and off the coast of West Africa, is now so large that it probably exceeds 80 million barrels -- about equivalent to a day's global oil consumption, brokers say.
Despite the recent sale of a handful of cargoes of North Sea crude from a supertanker at Scapa Flow in Scotland's Orkney Islands last week, the economics still make a compelling argument for buying oil now, putting it in a ship and selling it in a few months' time, traders say.
Much of the oil is North Sea crude such as Forties and Brent, but it also includes Russian Urals crude, West African and other grades.
Margins can be locked in at the time of purchase through a series of time spreads or contracts for differences as well as trades on London's ICE futures market.
"The amount of oil stored at sea is increasing steadily and will keep increasing until the numbers no longer make sense," said Simon Wardell, oil analyst at Global Insight in London.
Deepening global recession has dragged oil prices down more than 70 percent since they hit a record high of almost $150 a barrel last July, but oil futures prices are much higher, more than paying for storage and other costs such as financing.
CONTANGO
This discount for North Sea oil now below oil for the future, known as a contango, has been as wide as $8 over the last two months and much of the oil now stored at sea was put afloat in December.
Last week, the trading arm of Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) sold three cargoes of North Sea Forties crude by transshipment, prompting talk that the storage trade might be coming to an end.
The contango had flattened out, allowing Shell and some other companies that had stored oil to cash in and make a profit.
But the discount for prompt oil has deepened again over the last week, partly perhaps because of the release of some of oil from storage, and traders have again started booking vessels on long-term contracts with storage options, shipping brokers say.
BP Plc (BP.L), U.S. oil company Koch and independent Swiss-based trader Gunvor have all been in the market for, or taken options on, VLCCs with flexible, long-term storage options in the last few days, brokers say.
"There is no doubt that the contango play works again," said one oil broker, who declined to be identified. "The margin is there and is being filled."
By early Friday, there was a spread between light, sweet physical North Sea crude for delivery next week and June Brent futures LCOc1 of around $6.75, and closer to $8 against July futures.
Assuming rental rates for a 2.4 million-barrel VLCC of around $60,000 per day, that would put the cost of oil storage at around 75 cents per barrel per month, well inside the time spread even with hefty financing costs.
Many traders now storing oil believe the market for prompt oil will begin to strengthen over the next month or so as promised cuts in production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries begin to tighten supply.
The onset of the northern hemisphere summer could also spur an increase in demand for gasoline in the United States.
But analysts suggest the sheer size of the floating stockpile represents a threat to any quick recovery in oil prices. The oil will be released on to the market as prices recover, helping to slow or at least dampen any recovery.
"At some point all this oil will come flooding back into the market once the prompt price comes up against the futures," said Wardell. "That is likely to depress prices again."
The super contango arbitrage play is one of the few sureties for investors, and well worth investing in to assure profits.
Oil | Forty Dollars the Low for oil?
Now that oil futures prices have traded above the $40 mark for a couple weeks, some are concluding that the bottom may have finally been reached for the black gold.
After hitting a four-year low of $32.40 a barrel on Dec. 19, oil has now rebounded more than 20%. While occasionally falling below $40 in intraday trading, it has closed above $40 everyday since Jan. 20. Similarly, national average gasoline prices have risen above $1.90 a gallon from below $1.70 a month ago.
"While crude-oil markets may remain vulnerable to further disappointments in [...] economic conditions, there is also the potential for a price base to be forming," wrote Brenda Sullivan, an analyst at Sucden Financial Research, in a note.
Ultimately, analysts say the future direction of oil prices will depend on the outcome of the struggle of two opposing forces.
On the one hand, the weakening global economy is expected to lead demand for oil to fall for a second year, marking the first two-straight-year decline in decades. On the other hand, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to continue cutting production at a record pace to put a floor under prices.
High stakes
The stakes are high for investors who are bullish on oil, especially those who've poured record amounts into oil exchange-traded funds.
Data showed investment in oil ETFs, a convenient investment channel for retail investors, has reached record levels. The number of crude futures contracts held by the United States Oil Fund (USO) , the largest oil ETF, hit a record high near 80,000 recently. One contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil.
Last year, the commodity proved one of the best ways to earn a lot of money - and then, to lose it all. After hitting a record high of $147 a barrel in July, oil fell more than $100, or 70% by year-end. It closed 2008 down 54%, its biggest loss ever and more than the stock market's tumble.
Trading in the first months of this year also didn't bode well for oil bulls. Crude has lost 10% so far this year, compared with a 5% loss in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodities index, and a 4% gain in gold prices.
On Friday, oil fell 2% to near $40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the U.S. reported a 16-year high unemployment rate. See Futures Movers.
Some analysts predict oil prices could fall to as low as $25 in the second quarter. The inflation-adjusted record low for Nymex oil is at $18.90 a barrel, hit on April 1, 1986. In non-adjusted dollar terms, that low was $9.75, the only time in Nymex history that oil fell below $10.
OPEC cuts production
Investors aren't the only ones wanted oil prices to stabilize. The 12 OPEC member countries, whose revenues heavily depend on oil prices, have made record cuts in their production.
Some of the members of OPEC said they want to see oil prices rise to at least $60 a barrel.
At its December meeting, OPEC agreed to reduce production by a record amount of 2.2 million barrels a day, starting from Jan. 1, adding to previous cuts of 2 million barrels. Overall, the reduction is equal to about 5% of the world's oil demand, which should easily offset any drop in demand, analysts believe.
Most energy agencies, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, predict world oil demand will fall by 1% to 2% this year, following a similar decline in 2008.
Chakib Khelil, Algeria's energy minister, said Tuesday there was a 50% chance of another supply cut during OPEC's next meeting on March 15, according to media reports.
But OPEC members, who control more than one third of the world's oil production, have a sketchy record of implementing production cuts.
Oil could rise if OPEC cuts production, said Phil Flynn, vice president at Alaron Trading. "But the problem is the compliance."
OPEC in January met only two-thirds of its pledge to lower oil output, as several members continued to pump above target levels, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.
While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates lowered their production below or close to their targets, some other countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, have pumped more oil than their allowed quotas, the survey found.
Economic rebound?
Investors are also hoping demand will rebound once the economy is revived. With governments worldwide adopting stimulus packages, some economists believe the economy could bottom out in the second half of the year.
The Federal Reserve said late January the economy was in worse shape than it was in December, but a "gradual recovery [...] will begin later this year."
And in its January monthly report, the Energy Department's EIA said that after two years' decline, world oil consumption is expected to record a modest rebound in 2010,.
Such forecasts have already encouraged oil investors to build up their positions, even before prices start rising.
"We are in a world of increasing demand and decreasing supply for tangible things, especially energy," said Steven Podnos, a financial advisor at Wealth Care LLC. "Oil represents an attractive investment sector."
But for now, the oil market is still plagued by weak demand and lofty inventories. The EIA reported Wednesday that crude inventories in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, rose for a sixth straight week to 346.1 million barrels, the highest level in 18 months.
Meanwhile, inventories at Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for Nymex crude futures, have reached a new record high of 34.3 million barrels.
Global demand is poised to post the largest contraction this year since 1982, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a recent report.
"Supply constraints will remain a longer-term issue and will be intensified by the current bout of weaker prices," the Morgan Stanley analysts said. But "the magnitude of demand weakness will leave this constraint a non-issue in 2009."
They expect oil prices to average $35 barrels in 2009 and fall to a low of $25 in the second quarter.
The EIA, meanwhile, said in its January report, it expects oil prices to average $43 per barrel in 2009 and $55 in 2010.
While oil prices should rise this year, it'll be interesting to see if we've really hit an oil futures low, or it takes more time to work out depending on consumer demand connected to the economic crisis.
After hitting a four-year low of $32.40 a barrel on Dec. 19, oil has now rebounded more than 20%. While occasionally falling below $40 in intraday trading, it has closed above $40 everyday since Jan. 20. Similarly, national average gasoline prices have risen above $1.90 a gallon from below $1.70 a month ago.
"While crude-oil markets may remain vulnerable to further disappointments in [...] economic conditions, there is also the potential for a price base to be forming," wrote Brenda Sullivan, an analyst at Sucden Financial Research, in a note.
Ultimately, analysts say the future direction of oil prices will depend on the outcome of the struggle of two opposing forces.
On the one hand, the weakening global economy is expected to lead demand for oil to fall for a second year, marking the first two-straight-year decline in decades. On the other hand, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to continue cutting production at a record pace to put a floor under prices.
High stakes
The stakes are high for investors who are bullish on oil, especially those who've poured record amounts into oil exchange-traded funds.
Data showed investment in oil ETFs, a convenient investment channel for retail investors, has reached record levels. The number of crude futures contracts held by the United States Oil Fund (USO) , the largest oil ETF, hit a record high near 80,000 recently. One contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil.
Last year, the commodity proved one of the best ways to earn a lot of money - and then, to lose it all. After hitting a record high of $147 a barrel in July, oil fell more than $100, or 70% by year-end. It closed 2008 down 54%, its biggest loss ever and more than the stock market's tumble.
Trading in the first months of this year also didn't bode well for oil bulls. Crude has lost 10% so far this year, compared with a 5% loss in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodities index, and a 4% gain in gold prices.
On Friday, oil fell 2% to near $40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the U.S. reported a 16-year high unemployment rate. See Futures Movers.
Some analysts predict oil prices could fall to as low as $25 in the second quarter. The inflation-adjusted record low for Nymex oil is at $18.90 a barrel, hit on April 1, 1986. In non-adjusted dollar terms, that low was $9.75, the only time in Nymex history that oil fell below $10.
OPEC cuts production
Investors aren't the only ones wanted oil prices to stabilize. The 12 OPEC member countries, whose revenues heavily depend on oil prices, have made record cuts in their production.
Some of the members of OPEC said they want to see oil prices rise to at least $60 a barrel.
At its December meeting, OPEC agreed to reduce production by a record amount of 2.2 million barrels a day, starting from Jan. 1, adding to previous cuts of 2 million barrels. Overall, the reduction is equal to about 5% of the world's oil demand, which should easily offset any drop in demand, analysts believe.
Most energy agencies, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, predict world oil demand will fall by 1% to 2% this year, following a similar decline in 2008.
Chakib Khelil, Algeria's energy minister, said Tuesday there was a 50% chance of another supply cut during OPEC's next meeting on March 15, according to media reports.
But OPEC members, who control more than one third of the world's oil production, have a sketchy record of implementing production cuts.
Oil could rise if OPEC cuts production, said Phil Flynn, vice president at Alaron Trading. "But the problem is the compliance."
OPEC in January met only two-thirds of its pledge to lower oil output, as several members continued to pump above target levels, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.
While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates lowered their production below or close to their targets, some other countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, have pumped more oil than their allowed quotas, the survey found.
Economic rebound?
Investors are also hoping demand will rebound once the economy is revived. With governments worldwide adopting stimulus packages, some economists believe the economy could bottom out in the second half of the year.
The Federal Reserve said late January the economy was in worse shape than it was in December, but a "gradual recovery [...] will begin later this year."
And in its January monthly report, the Energy Department's EIA said that after two years' decline, world oil consumption is expected to record a modest rebound in 2010,.
Such forecasts have already encouraged oil investors to build up their positions, even before prices start rising.
"We are in a world of increasing demand and decreasing supply for tangible things, especially energy," said Steven Podnos, a financial advisor at Wealth Care LLC. "Oil represents an attractive investment sector."
But for now, the oil market is still plagued by weak demand and lofty inventories. The EIA reported Wednesday that crude inventories in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, rose for a sixth straight week to 346.1 million barrels, the highest level in 18 months.
Meanwhile, inventories at Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for Nymex crude futures, have reached a new record high of 34.3 million barrels.
Global demand is poised to post the largest contraction this year since 1982, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a recent report.
"Supply constraints will remain a longer-term issue and will be intensified by the current bout of weaker prices," the Morgan Stanley analysts said. But "the magnitude of demand weakness will leave this constraint a non-issue in 2009."
They expect oil prices to average $35 barrels in 2009 and fall to a low of $25 in the second quarter.
The EIA, meanwhile, said in its January report, it expects oil prices to average $43 per barrel in 2009 and $55 in 2010.
While oil prices should rise this year, it'll be interesting to see if we've really hit an oil futures low, or it takes more time to work out depending on consumer demand connected to the economic crisis.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Oil Refinery Workers New Labor Contract
Union negotiators for oil refinery workers have tentatively agreed to a new contract which represents approximately 24,000 union members.
The new contract deals with labor issues like wage and benefit levels, which the details of the agreement weren't released.
If there had been a strike, it would have affected up to 10 percent of the overall refining capacity in America's oil industry. Other reports say the strike could have affected close to two-thirds of the capacity to make fuels in general, gasoline and diesel.
Details of the oil refinery workers deal will be released sometime on Wednesday by their representatives of the United Steelworkers union. Signing off on the deal was the National Oil Policy Committee, which still has to be ratified by local union units.
Some of the large oil and gas companies that would have been affected by the strike were Exxon Mobil (nyse:XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (nyse: RDSA), BP (nyse:BP) PLC, Valero (nyse:VLO), and Chevron (nyse:CVX), of close to 60 oil producers in general.
Besides higher wages, other issues being negotiated for the oil refinery workers were cost-of-living increases and full benefits for medical, dental and vision; both for current and retired oil workers.
The deal was worked out with Shell Oil, which will also be extended to the other plants, including Valero Energy Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron and BP Plc. The deal, if approved, will keep up to six refinery plants from closing, and about 1.7 barrels a day from going off line.
Some of the known parts of the contract are a three percent raise for each of the three years of the contract, along with a signing bonus of $2,500 if it is approved before February 16.
Fuel and oil demand has fallen so much that the refineries have slowed production after falling prices put downward pressure on margins. Oil processors have had a record number of days of making gasoline at a loss, measured by futures prices.
The two largest refiners in America, ConocoPhillips and Valero were leading the fuel production cut in oil refinery output.
Gas prices had surged by 10 percent last week as the possibility of a strike loomed over the oil and oil refinery industry.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gasoline for March delivery increased 1.68 cents to $1.166 a gallon. Gas prices across the nation grew to $1.89 a gallon according to AAA.
Now that a strike is probably averted, we should see a corresponding fall in gasoline prices as demand continues to fall.
If things do change economically, this new contract could be a diaster for union members, as higher operating costs through increased wages and benefits could put many oil refinery workers out of a job in the months ahead. But that's how unions always work, as they overreach and cause loss of jobs, while benefitting only some of the members.
For the week ending January 16, oil refinery production had operated at 82.5 percent of capacity, down significantly from the 85.2 percent the week before. It'll a long time before gas and oil demand increase in any major way.
Motorists in the U.S. continue to drive much less, as for the second year they've driven at a lower rate than the previous year. According to the Federal Highway Administration, vehicle miles have plunged by 5.3 percent or 12.9 billion miles. We should see that continue on, and oil refineries operating at even less capacity before it turns around.
The new contract deals with labor issues like wage and benefit levels, which the details of the agreement weren't released.
If there had been a strike, it would have affected up to 10 percent of the overall refining capacity in America's oil industry. Other reports say the strike could have affected close to two-thirds of the capacity to make fuels in general, gasoline and diesel.
Details of the oil refinery workers deal will be released sometime on Wednesday by their representatives of the United Steelworkers union. Signing off on the deal was the National Oil Policy Committee, which still has to be ratified by local union units.
Some of the large oil and gas companies that would have been affected by the strike were Exxon Mobil (nyse:XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (nyse: RDSA), BP (nyse:BP) PLC, Valero (nyse:VLO), and Chevron (nyse:CVX), of close to 60 oil producers in general.
Besides higher wages, other issues being negotiated for the oil refinery workers were cost-of-living increases and full benefits for medical, dental and vision; both for current and retired oil workers.
The deal was worked out with Shell Oil, which will also be extended to the other plants, including Valero Energy Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron and BP Plc. The deal, if approved, will keep up to six refinery plants from closing, and about 1.7 barrels a day from going off line.
Some of the known parts of the contract are a three percent raise for each of the three years of the contract, along with a signing bonus of $2,500 if it is approved before February 16.
Fuel and oil demand has fallen so much that the refineries have slowed production after falling prices put downward pressure on margins. Oil processors have had a record number of days of making gasoline at a loss, measured by futures prices.
The two largest refiners in America, ConocoPhillips and Valero were leading the fuel production cut in oil refinery output.
Gas prices had surged by 10 percent last week as the possibility of a strike loomed over the oil and oil refinery industry.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gasoline for March delivery increased 1.68 cents to $1.166 a gallon. Gas prices across the nation grew to $1.89 a gallon according to AAA.
Now that a strike is probably averted, we should see a corresponding fall in gasoline prices as demand continues to fall.
If things do change economically, this new contract could be a diaster for union members, as higher operating costs through increased wages and benefits could put many oil refinery workers out of a job in the months ahead. But that's how unions always work, as they overreach and cause loss of jobs, while benefitting only some of the members.
For the week ending January 16, oil refinery production had operated at 82.5 percent of capacity, down significantly from the 85.2 percent the week before. It'll a long time before gas and oil demand increase in any major way.
Motorists in the U.S. continue to drive much less, as for the second year they've driven at a lower rate than the previous year. According to the Federal Highway Administration, vehicle miles have plunged by 5.3 percent or 12.9 billion miles. We should see that continue on, and oil refineries operating at even less capacity before it turns around.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
